Brazil Votes as Lula Faces Flávio Bolsonaro in Election Shadowed by Jailed Ex-President

Brazilians cast their ballots on Sunday in a general election whose presidential race is dominated by two candidates carrying sharply contrasting legacies — and by the long shadow of a former leader who is not even on the ballot.

Polls closed at 17:00 Brasília Time (20:00 GMT), with the country's extensive electronic voting system expected to produce results within a few hours. The contest pits incumbent President Luíz Inácio Lula da Silva, the veteran left-wing leader of the Workers' Party, against eleven challengers, the most significant of whom is right-winger Flávio Bolsonaro.

The matchup carries a strong sense of déjà vu. Four years ago, Lula narrowly defeated Jair Bolsonaro, Flávio's father, in an election whose turbulent aftermath has left deep scars on Brazilian political life. Jair Bolsonaro, the right-wing former army captain who governed from 2019 to 2023, was later convicted of plotting a coup after thousands of his supporters stormed the Brazilian Congress. That conviction has reshaped the political landscape in which this year's election is unfolding.

The most striking feature of the current campaign is the presence of a man who cannot run and cannot speak publicly. Jair Bolsonaro, now 71, is barred from holding office and is serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup following his 2022 defeat. Because of recurring health problems, he is under house arrest rather than in a prison cell, and restrictions prohibit him from posting on social media or issuing public statements.

Yet his influence remains unmistakable. At the event where Flávio Bolsonaro formally launched his presidential campaign, supporters were shown an AI-generated avatar of Jair Bolsonaro endorsing his son's candidacy. When the Supreme Court pressed him about the deepfake, Jair Bolsonaro's lawyers suggested he had not authorized its use. Even so, there is little doubt that Flávio Bolsonaro enjoys his father's backing — a dynamic that keeps the imprisoned former president at the centre of the national conversation despite his legal silence.

The polling picture reinforces how concentrated the race has become. Although twelve candidates are competing for the presidency, only two have reached double digits in opinion surveys: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro. According to BBC Brasil's poll tracker, both are hovering around the 40% mark, with Lula holding a slight lead. The remaining candidates are polling at 4% or less, leaving them effectively on the margins of the contest.

Under Brazilian electoral rules, a candidate must win more than 50% of valid votes in the first round to avoid a runoff. If no one crosses that threshold on 4 October, the top two finishers will meet again on 25 October. The polls suggest a second round is highly likely, though an outright first-round victory cannot be entirely dismissed given the relatively large number of voters who remained undecided in the final days of the campaign.

BBC Brasil's poll aggregator indicated that at the end of September, about 9% of voters were either undecided or intended to spoil their ballot, cast a blank ballot, or abstain altogether. That segment of the electorate could prove decisive if the race tightens further.

The mechanics of voting in Brazil are unusual by international standards. Citizens aged 16 and older are entitled to vote, and participation is compulsory for literate Brazilians between the ages of 18 and 70, with fines imposed on those who fail to cast a ballot. Nearly 160 million Brazilians are eligible to vote in this election. Because polls typically survey only a few thousand people, the final result can diverge considerably from the indications provided by surveys.

Lula, the 80-year-old Workers' Party candidate, is seeking a return to the office he has already held three times. He served two consecutive terms from January 2003 to December 2010, a period in which he was widely praised for lifting millions of Brazilians out of poverty through a cash-transfer programme known as Bolsa Família. The former metalworker left office with record approval ratings above 80%.

His later years, however, were clouded by legal troubles. His party was rocked by major corruption scandals, and Lula himself spent more than 18 months in prison between 2018 and 2019 after being convicted of corruption and money laundering — charges he has always denied. Those convictions were later annulled, clearing the way for his political comeback.

On the international stage, Lula has continued to emphasize Brazilian sovereignty. In his speech to the United Nations General Assembly in September, he stressed his country's independence and its role on the global stage, positioning himself as an experienced statesman in contrast to his younger challenger.

Flávio Bolsonaro, by contrast, is campaigning as the inheritor of his father's political movement while navigating the legal and reputational constraints surrounding the family name. His reliance on an AI-generated endorsement video illustrates both the enduring pull of the Bolsonaro brand and the unusual limits placed on the man who built it.

The election's outcome will be shaped not only by the two front-runners but also by the voters still weighing their options and by a political environment in which the aftermath of the 2022 election — including the storming of Congress and the subsequent coup conviction — continues to influence how Brazilians view both candidates. With results expected within hours of polls closing, the country now waits to learn whether it will face a decisive first-round result or another tense runoff.