Rebel Forces Pull Back from Mekelle as Tigray Conflict Threatens Wider Regional Instability

Rebel fighters in Ethiopia's northern Tigray region announced on Sunday that they have temporarily pulled out of Mekelle, the regional capital, as clashes between their forces and the national army edge closer to the city. The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), which has governed the region for years, said the decision to relocate its forces was driven by fears for the safety of civilians caught in the path of the fighting.

Residents of Mekelle who spoke with the BBC confirmed that pro-government troops now appear to be in control of the city, with TPLF fighters having left the area. One local source also reported that mobile phone networks seemed to be working again in certain parts of the capital, suggesting a partial restoration of communications that had been disrupted during the recent escalation.

The withdrawal represents a significant turning point in a conflict that has been building for weeks. Violence has flared across parts of Tigray as well as the neighbouring northern regions of Afar and Amhara, pitting the TPLF against federal forces and their allied militias. The shift in control of Mekelle marks the most dramatic change in the balance of power since fighting resumed.

Observers are increasingly worried that the conflict could destabilise the broader Horn of Africa, a region already grappling with multiple overlapping crises. There are concerns that neighbouring countries could be drawn into the confrontation, either directly or through proxy support for the opposing sides.

In response to the escalating violence, the United States Department of State urged all parties to exercise "restraint" and pursue "dialogue." The appeal came just before a diplomatic gathering in Egypt on Sunday, where leaders from several of Ethiopia's neighbours were scheduled to discuss the crisis and explore possible pathways toward de-escalation.

The renewed hostilities have shattered a fragile calm that had held since 2022, when the African Union brokered a peace agreement known as the Pretoria Agreement. That deal ended a devastating two-year civil war that the AU's own mediator estimated had claimed around 600,000 lives, pushing the region to the brink of famine and leaving deep scars on the local population.

Despite the agreement, relations between the TPLF and the federal government have deteriorated sharply over the past six months, with both sides trading accusations of violating the terms of the peace deal. The trust that had been painstakingly built during the negotiations has steadily eroded, laying the groundwork for the current eruption of violence.

The situation grew more complex last month when the TPLF joined forces with six other armed movements, including the Fano militia from Amhara, to form a new alliance. The coalition has stated that its primary objective is to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government from power, signalling a widening of the conflict beyond Tigray's borders.

Regional tensions have also spilled over into Ethiopia's foreign relations. On Friday, Ethiopia and Eritrea severed diplomatic ties after Addis Ababa accused Asmara of backing the newly formed rebel alliance — a charge Eritrea has denied. The breakdown in relations between the two neighbours adds another volatile dimension to an already precarious security environment.

Ethiopia has also levelled accusations against Egypt, claiming that Cairo has been supporting the rebels. The allegation led to the expulsion of an Egyptian diplomat, and Cairo retaliated by ordering an Ethiopian embassy official to leave within the same timeframe. These reciprocal expulsions have further strained diplomatic channels at a moment when dialogue is urgently needed.

The humanitarian consequences of the renewed fighting are mounting. The United Nations has warned that the deteriorating security situation in northern Ethiopia is severely hampering humanitarian operations across the region. The UN has called on all parties to guarantee safe and unhindered access to people in need, many of whom are still recovering from the previous war.

For the residents of Mekelle and surrounding areas, the latest developments have revived painful memories. The 2020-2022 civil war was one of the deadliest conflicts of this century, leaving hundreds of thousands dead and displacing millions. Communities that had begun to rebuild their lives now face the prospect of renewed displacement and hardship.

Pro-government soldiers have been photographed standing guard on streets in Tigray, underscoring the rapid shift in territorial control. The imagery highlights how quickly the situation on the ground has changed, with federal forces and their allies now asserting authority in areas that had been under TPLF administration.

The coming days will be critical in determining whether the conflict spirals further or whether diplomatic efforts can gain traction. The meeting in Egypt and the US call for restraint suggest that international actors are hoping to prevent a full-scale return to war. However, with alliances shifting, foreign relations fraying, and humanitarian access deteriorating, the path to a durable ceasefire remains highly uncertain.

The withdrawal from Mekelle may prove to be either a tactical pause or a decisive moment in the conflict's trajectory. What is clear is that the situation in northern Ethiopia remains dangerously fluid, with profound implications not only for the country's future but for stability across the entire Horn of Africa.